Deutsche Bank: the situation in Greece after the referendum four kinds roadmap

Night network, nightlife network Finance YORK, July 6 news, Greece on Sunday to hold a referendum on the international bailout creditors, voting results showed that more than 61.3% of Greek citizens oppose the rescue plan。This result means that Greece is likely to be forced out of the euro。German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande agreed to call for the convening of the euro zone summit to discuss the crisis in Greece on Tuesday。  Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank) by the scientists believe, after a referendum rejected the rescue plan proposed by the creditors, the Greek crisis unpredictable consequences and probabilities range surged again。  Deutsche Bank pointed out that the next few hours, the two sides willingness to resume negotiations and restart the conditions under which negotiations will be the next most important thing。After that, the pressure faced by the Greek economy and the public will gradually increase, the banking system is frozen, the more stringent capital controls。This will force Greece must quickly make a decision, in the end is to return to the negotiation track, or consider alternatives – out of the euro。  Deutsche Bank believes the situation could progress in the next four kinds roadmap: The first possibility: soft Agreement。Eurozone creditors to provide assistance protocol for significantly reducing conditions to Greece, but the least likely to think that Deutsche Bank。  The second possibility: default and stay in the euro。Greek default, but remain in the eurozone, other members of the Bank of Greece for direct recapitalization, while the Greek government only domestic resources to meet their financial needs。Deutsche Bank believes this is a low possibility of secondary cases。  A third possibility: to reach a new agreement。With the banking system shutdown caused by the economic and political costs continue to rise, the Greek government was replaced by radicals of a new national unity government, and reached a new aid agreement with creditors。  A fourth possibility: Greece out of the euro。Deutsche Bank economists believe that Greece out of the euro and the maximum likelihood third scenario, both the possibility of roughly。Therefore, if the four possibilities are taken into account, the probability of a Greek exit should be less than 50%。  But views differ from other institutions, after the referendum results came out, JP Morgan Chase (JP Morgan) that Greece out of the euro has risen to two-thirds probability, Barclays Bank (Barclays) also believe that Greece out of the euro is a high probability event。(Shofu compilation)